mercoledì 28 ottobre 2015

Modello predittivo dell’aspettativa di vita [Predictive model of life expectancy]

Articolo presentato a SIGG 2015.


A model is presented that uses age and the maximum aerobic  metabolic power to produce a distribution of life expectancy. The model takes into account the linear reduction of maximum metabolic power with age and assumes that the force of mortality of the illnesses has an exponential distribution.
In order to establish the reduction of the metabolic power with age, data from the authors and from literature are used. Several papers were analysed to estimate the increase in the risk of mortality with the reduction of  metabolic power. The main result is that the life expectancy for the least fit quintile of the population is 8 years less than for the most fit. A complete distribution curve is calculated for each quintile of the population.